Lightning in a Bottle

It's been over a month since the United States general election, and despite the myriad court cases and bizarre, bordering on ridiculous, conspiracy theories floated by President Trump and his allies, it now appear almost certain that the desire expressed by over half the nation will in fact be fulfilled and Donald Trump will soon be keeping company with George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter as a one term president. For most people, this would not be the worst company to keep, but Trump has turned losing an election into such a personal anathema that he recoils from any hint that he has been rejected by the country and instead clings to the most outlandish and ridiculous lies in an attempt to avoid facing reality. He has refused so far to recognize his conqueror and stubbornly persists in his delusions, though the moment of cold reality draws ever closer and it is over but for the wailing and pouting.

Normally this would be a moment to savor, given the pain and damage this man has wrought upon the nation. This should have been a moment of sweet triumph when a man who delights in belittling others is himself brought low and when a lout who claims the powers of a king in a democratic republic is reminded that he does in fact answer to the people and that they have sat in judgment upon him and found him wanting. But the reality is that the this was not an election to be enjoyed. Trump, as he loves to point out, won more votes than any other president before him and only the inconvenient fact that his opponent won a good six million more votes than he and prevailed in a handful of key states denies him a chance to prolong our national agony. But the fact that over seventy million Americans decided that they would like another four years of the same is a sobering thought, a draft of gall that ruins the nectar of victory.

Tomorrow, the tally of the electoral college votes should further reinforce what we have known since the first week of November, that Joe Biden has won the election and will be the next president of the United States. But what of the man he displaced? Trump has made it clear that he will not accept his defeat, graciously or otherwise, and in a rarity for him, he has kept his promise that he will be a bad loser. But beyond the short term tantrums, theater and grift,  he has hinted that he will not do like previous losing candidates and yield the political centerstage. Other losing candidates have remained active - Al Gore became a climate change activist, Jimmy Carter championed housing for the less fortunate - but they exited the stage of presidential politics. Trump, by contrast, has hinted that he may run again for the presidency in 2024, something that has never been done before. To be sure, it is his right to do so, but  losing candidates of yesteryear have stepped aside not because of any law precluding them but because they have accepted the judgment of the people and know that their failure should open the path for new ideas, new candidates and new energy.

Donald Trump however is a Unicorn, a man of unique talents. This is not a compliment but a mere statement of fact. His record setting vote haul was noteworthy in the energy and dedication it revealed in his supporters but also in the wide swath of supporters he enjoys beyond the traditional Republican tent. In the same way that Nixon attracted Southern Democrats to the GOP, Trump has found a surprisingly durable vein of support in places not always favorable to the GOP. The party leadership would like to tap into that support for other electoral battles, but they are painfully aware that the support is for Trump, not for the GOP as a whole. Trump could draw that support because he had no real ideology and was happy to offer lie upon barefaced lie, telling his audience what they wanted to hear. His own aura of success was built on similar myth and it was easy enough for him to promise anything and everything to his followers. 

Now the GOP is caught in a trap of its own creation. Many candidates would like to vie for the leadership of the party, but with Trump refusing to yield his position, they must either step aside or challenge him. They have been so abject in the servility so far that it is nigh impossible to see any of them summon the courage to challenge Trump now, even though the longer they wait, the lower their chances of becoming the new face of the party even should Trump finally fall. But for the rest of the leadership, the men like Senate Leader Mitch McConnell or House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the greater fear is that should Trump retreat into the shadows, the coalition he has created may collapse as suddenly as it formed. They, and all would be leaders of the party, know that no one else can capture the lightning in a bottle that Trump possesses. For one, they are generally bound to GOP orthodoxy, even when they spurned it at Trump's command. From no tax raises to free markets to corporate supremacy, they are on a vastly different path from that which drew support to Trump. The fact that Trump never delivered on his promises made little difference to his supporters since he always claimed with absolute confidence that he had in fact done so. From a woeful record of actual new manufacturing jobs to literally no increase in infrastructure spending, from trade wars with no clear plan to a lack of any healthcare agenda, Trump never attempted to actually deliver anything he had promised but he had the unique ability to lie boldly and unashamedly. None of his would be successors have that level of audacity; perhaps they are too rooted in reality to be able to actually pull it off. 

Trump had other skills that few realized would translate so well to electoral politics. He reveled in chaos, he understood the TV news cycle in a way that none of his peers did (and to be honest, neither did his critics in the press). He knew that any crisis could be swept out of the public's mind by simply creating a new controversy. He understood the short attention span of the American public because he understood the need of the press for non-stop continuous hype and excitement; he provided it through outrageous actions and statements and in the fog of confusion, no single issue ever grew big enough to hurt him. On the rare occasions when events remained beyond his control, he resorted to outrageous lies, depending on the distrust he had already created around the nation's news media and the unwillingness of the press to  recognize that he had torn up and trampled the rules that they still clung to. It is for sober research in years to come to determine exactly why so many people continued to believe his lies or excuse them, but the fact remains that no other GOP leader can hope to walk the same path he has blazed. They have too much awareness of reality and they have too long a record in public life to suddenly promise anything they need to win support. Ironically, a major anchor holding them back is their record through the Trump years and how they abandoned all their core beliefs to support Trump. To retain the support of Trump's devoted followers they must continue to bow down before him, while to stand up for themselves now would be to stand naked before the world. They are Trump's playthings, his puppets and they should know that whether he is deposed or simply fades when he loses the oxygen of attention, they cannot hope to be his successors, nor have they anything left to stand by themselves.