The Indian elections of 2014 may well have been unique in the history
of that young nation and ancient country and marked an epochal change
in its politics. For the first time, at least one of the major
political parties sought a democratic mandate based on a
straightforward policy of economic progress. Indian elections have
been fought on policy before, contrary to general perception, but the
policy has usually bordered on the populist and vacuous - promises of
social engineering and glorious temples that served to fire up
certain sections of the electorate while explicitly leaving
significant other sections worse off. This time, the Bharatiya Janata
Party (the BJP) pushed their more divisive policies to the background
and promoted an all-out message of economic development for all.
Unlike past promises of prosperity, this was a message that did not
promise free electricity or cancellation of loans - both ideas have
been presented numerous times before by parties of all stripes with
predictably terrible results when fulfilled; rather it promised a
vision of economic development for everyone, with the implicit
suggestion that every Indian would be free to pursue their dream of a
better life.
Unique as that approach was in Indian politics, the real surprise was
the whole-hearted embrace of it by the electorate. Cutting across the
traditional divides of Indian polity, blurring the lines between
various caste and ethnic groups, Indians across the nation bought
into the idea that they could in fact enjoy a better tomorrow. The
Indian electorate has usually proved a lot more sophisticated and
perspicacious than they are given credit for, so perhaps the
rejection of politics as usual should not really shock observers. But
the level to which they rejected the tired ideas of the old
political order and jumped aboard the BJP train is a surprise - they
have given a single party an outright majority for the first time in
twenty-five years, ending the incessant mess of unprincipled
coalition politics. Undoubtedly the BJP were assisted by the
erstwhile ruling Indian National Congress Party which squandered
every bit of goodwill extended to it in past elections and produced a
primer on how to misrule a nation and set new lows in corruption, all
while treating the nation with contempt that would have made Nero
proud. With a level of disconnect that bordered on the comedic, they
misread every signal of the changing mood in India and attempted to
fight an election of ideas and policy with a badly tarnished brand
and the tired feudal approach of yesteryear. Unsurprisingly they
ended up crashing to the worst defeat ever and the BJP ascended to
unprecedented heights of power and popularity.
This is not the largest election mandate in Indian history, not by a
long shot. But prior victories of similar proportions were driven by
events that ended up skewing the results by large margins - the
sympathy for Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 following his mother's
assassination in office, the sympathy that followed his assassination
in 1989 that propelled his party back to power, the highly divisive
politics of caste and religion that lifted the BJP to its first
position of power at the end of the last century. This was the first
time that a major party sought a mandate on a purely economic agenda
and was rewarded for it.
Yet, in that mandate are the disturbing risks that if not ably
managed could upend India and make the chaos of the early 90s seem
downright peaceful. The nation has bought into the idea that he can
replicate at the national level the economic boom that he presided
over as Chief Minister of the state of Gujurat, and they have
invested heavily in that assumption by voting so strongly for him.
Make no mistakes, the belief that Mr. Modi can bring prosperity to
all of India was a major factor in his electoral success, an idea
that he did much to perpetuate. But the question is whether he can in
fact work an economic miracle for all of India and lift twelve
hundred million people out of poverty. India is a large and complex
nation, and massive swarths of the country are stuck in almost the
dark ages in terms of infrastructure. Half the country lacks access
of drinking water or modern sanitation; those that enjoy that access
still live with intermittent water supply and near constant power
shortages. Despite plenty of bombast, roads are pitifully inadequate
- potholes are the least of one's worries when traveling the
so-called highways. Median separated highways that crisscross every
developed nation are few and far between; an utter lack of discipline
amongst the driving public reduces even those few real roads to
chaos. Corruption is more than a problem, it is a way of life and
even those who bemoan it most loudly are often more than willing to
indulge it when it suits their personal needs. The Indian State and
its executive arm have yet to throw off their colonial approach to
government and much of the power of the State is directed against its
own people.
This then is the nation that the BJP and their leader Narendra Modi
inherits. How does it compare to the state he ruled since 2002?
Gujarat while not the most progressive state, has historically been
fairly well-developed. At the risk of stereotyping, the Gujaratis are
amongst the most entrepreneurial in India, and have long been in the
foremost ranks of business leaders. In 2000, after decades of
litigation, the massive Sardar
Sarovar Dam and Narmada
Canal project were green-lighted and the dam was commissioned in
2006. The economic stimulus to the state of Gujarat cannot be
underestimated, with almost eighteen thousand square kilometers of
drought-prone land brought under irrigation and fifteen hundred
megawatts of power generating capacity. Mr. Modi and his state
government had nothing to do with making this happen; the project had
been conceived before 1980 and successive governments had sought to
make it reality; Mr. Modi was fortunate enough to be the Chief
Minister when the benefits became available. He will not enjoy
anything like the same good fortune as leader of a much bigger, more
complex, more factitious and undoubtedly much poorer (per capita)
nation.
To be fair to the man, he may well have maximized the advantage and
above all did nothing to impede the natural ingenuity and
productiveness of his people. It is possible that he will find the
means to unlock the potential of all of India. But the greater risk
is that he will find it much harder to deliver the kind of prosperity
India longs for and that the challenges of delivering development to
all of India (significant parts of which are only nominally under the
control of the State) will prove beyond his, or anybody's skills.
It's not that it is absolutely impossible to deliver on progress;
rather it is the timeframe that will be so difficult. When
expectations are sky high, people tend to expect that they will be
met earlier rather than later. There is a grace period, but it is
short and Mr. Modi faces the challenge of managing those high
expectations. He does not need to turn everybody into millionaires,
he just needs to improve their lives.
But to do this will mean overcoming massive inertia at every level of
the State. Not every Indian wants him to succeed (his political
rivals, obviously, especially those who have preferred a feudal form
of government). There are going to be those who find themselves on
the losing side of the equation, for even economic growth is not a
win-win game, and they will have far greater reason to oppose him
forcefully than the rest of electorate have to rally behind him, even
if they supported him today. And given that India is in desperate
need of a huge overhaul of it's approach to corruption, at some point
Mr. Modi will have to make some decisions that will be unpopular in a
great many places. And always, those who have something to lose, or
have some grievance are more driven to act and protect their
interests than those who are busy reaping the benefits.
The danger lies not so much in a failure to deliver on his promises,
per se. After all, if Mr. Modi failed to live up to expectations,
India would seek someone new at their next election. But political
leaders do not suffer to go quietly to defeat, and if Mr. Modi's
party finds their unpopularity rising on the back of failed
expectations, they may revert to other political ideas that have
served them well before. Even now there is a faction of the party
that would see the mandate to deliver prosperity as a great
opportunity to revisit older promises, such as a plan to build a
grand temple on the ruins of a recently destroyed mosque (which
probably stood on the ruins of a destroyed temple), though such an
act would be a clear slap in the face of India's considerable Muslim
minority and be perceived as a threat to the entire idea of the
secular state. Yet, when political fortunes wane, lesser leaders are
willing to loose the evils of Pandora's Box upon the world if it buys
them a few moments more at the helm.
If Mr. Modi and his party face a disenchanted electorate, there will
be a strong temptation to tear at the scabs of sectarian conflict.
Mr. Modi has already presided over a violent reaction against Muslims
before, and while he maintains that he did not encourage attacks on
Muslims (and has been held blameless by inquiry commissions) his
responses have also a certain unwholesome vagueness, an unwillingness
to deplore the violence that occurred, and a tendency to downplay the
scale of violence. Should he face an unfavorable political climate,
will he revert to a less suave version of himself and seek to bolster
his support amongst a smaller group at the expense of the nation? I
hope not, and
People are not wholly unreasonable, and Indians are possessed of an
almost legendary patience, bordering on apathetic. I believe that if
Mr. Modi can deliver even a down payment on his promises, Indians
will recognize his effort and extend him additional time. And
hopefully, Mr. Modi will recognize that the only way to rule all of
India is to present a vision for all of India. A better life and a
better tomorrow means far more to more people than the grandest
temple in Ayodyah. The challenge now is for Mr. Modi to manage
expectations and work towards delivering on his implicit promise of
that better tomorrow. And for his to remember what truly makes a
better tomorrow.
