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Saturday, May 31, 2014

The Risks of Great Expectations

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The Indian elections of 2014 may well have been unique in the history of that young nation and ancient country and marked an epochal change in its politics. For the first time, at least one of the major political parties sought a democratic mandate based on a straightforward policy of economic progress. Indian elections have been fought on policy before, contrary to general perception, but the policy has usually bordered on the populist and vacuous - promises of social engineering and glorious temples that served to fire up certain sections of the electorate while explicitly leaving significant other sections worse off. This time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (the BJP) pushed their more divisive policies to the background and promoted an all-out message of economic development for all. Unlike past promises of prosperity, this was a message that did not promise free electricity or cancellation of loans - both ideas have been presented numerous times before by parties of all stripes with predictably terrible results when fulfilled; rather it promised a vision of economic development for everyone, with the implicit suggestion that every Indian would be free to pursue their dream of a better life.

Unique as that approach was in Indian politics, the real surprise was the whole-hearted embrace of it by the electorate. Cutting across the traditional divides of Indian polity, blurring the lines between various caste and ethnic groups, Indians across the nation bought into the idea that they could in fact enjoy a better tomorrow. The Indian electorate has usually proved a lot more sophisticated and perspicacious than they are given credit for, so perhaps the rejection of politics as usual should not really shock observers. But the level to which they rejected the tired ideas of the old political order and jumped aboard the BJP train is a surprise - they have given a single party an outright majority for the first time in twenty-five years, ending the incessant mess of unprincipled coalition politics. Undoubtedly the BJP were assisted by the erstwhile ruling Indian National Congress Party which squandered every bit of goodwill extended to it in past elections and produced a primer on how to misrule a nation and set new lows in corruption, all while treating the nation with contempt that would have made Nero proud. With a level of disconnect that bordered on the comedic, they misread every signal of the changing mood in India and attempted to fight an election of ideas and policy with a badly tarnished brand and the tired feudal approach of yesteryear. Unsurprisingly they ended up crashing to the worst defeat ever and the BJP ascended to unprecedented heights of power and popularity.

This is not the largest election mandate in Indian history, not by a long shot. But prior victories of similar proportions were driven by events that ended up skewing the results by large margins - the sympathy for Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 following his mother's assassination in office, the sympathy that followed his assassination in 1989 that propelled his party back to power, the highly divisive politics of caste and religion that lifted the BJP to its first position of power at the end of the last century. This was the first time that a major party sought a mandate on a purely economic agenda and was rewarded for it.

Yet, in that mandate are the disturbing risks that if not ably managed could upend India and make the chaos of the early 90s seem downright peaceful. The nation has bought into the idea that he can replicate at the national level the economic boom that he presided over as Chief Minister of the state of Gujurat, and they have invested heavily in that assumption by voting so strongly for him. Make no mistakes, the belief that Mr. Modi can bring prosperity to all of India was a major factor in his electoral success, an idea that he did much to perpetuate. But the question is whether he can in fact work an economic miracle for all of India and lift twelve hundred million people out of poverty. India is a large and complex nation, and massive swarths of the country are stuck in almost the dark ages in terms of infrastructure. Half the country lacks access of drinking water or modern sanitation; those that enjoy that access still live with intermittent water supply and near constant power shortages. Despite plenty of bombast, roads are pitifully inadequate - potholes are the least of one's worries when traveling the so-called highways. Median separated highways that crisscross every developed nation are few and far between; an utter lack of discipline amongst the driving public reduces even those few real roads to chaos. Corruption is more than a problem, it is a way of life and even those who bemoan it most loudly are often more than willing to indulge it when it suits their personal needs. The Indian State and its executive arm have yet to throw off their colonial approach to government and much of the power of the State is directed against its own people.

This then is the nation that the BJP and their leader Narendra Modi inherits. How does it compare to the state he ruled since 2002? Gujarat while not the most progressive state, has historically been fairly well-developed. At the risk of stereotyping, the Gujaratis are amongst the most entrepreneurial in India, and have long been in the foremost ranks of business leaders. In 2000, after decades of litigation, the massive Sardar Sarovar Dam and Narmada Canal project were green-lighted and the dam was commissioned in 2006. The economic stimulus to the state of Gujarat cannot be underestimated, with almost eighteen thousand square kilometers of drought-prone land brought under irrigation and fifteen hundred megawatts of power generating capacity. Mr. Modi and his state government had nothing to do with making this happen; the project had been conceived before 1980 and successive governments had sought to make it reality; Mr. Modi was fortunate enough to be the Chief Minister when the benefits became available. He will not enjoy anything like the same good fortune as leader of a much bigger, more complex, more factitious and undoubtedly much poorer (per capita) nation.

To be fair to the man, he may well have maximized the advantage and above all did nothing to impede the natural ingenuity and productiveness of his people. It is possible that he will find the means to unlock the potential of all of India. But the greater risk is that he will find it much harder to deliver the kind of prosperity India longs for and that the challenges of delivering development to all of India (significant parts of which are only nominally under the control of the State) will prove beyond his, or anybody's skills. It's not that it is absolutely impossible to deliver on progress; rather it is the timeframe that will be so difficult. When expectations are sky high, people tend to expect that they will be met earlier rather than later. There is a grace period, but it is short and Mr. Modi faces the challenge of managing those high expectations. He does not need to turn everybody into millionaires, he just needs to improve their lives.

But to do this will mean overcoming massive inertia at every level of the State. Not every Indian wants him to succeed (his political rivals, obviously, especially those who have preferred a feudal form of government). There are going to be those who find themselves on the losing side of the equation, for even economic growth is not a win-win game, and they will have far greater reason to oppose him forcefully than the rest of electorate have to rally behind him, even if they supported him today. And given that India is in desperate need of a huge overhaul of it's approach to corruption, at some point Mr. Modi will have to make some decisions that will be unpopular in a great many places. And always, those who have something to lose, or have some grievance are more driven to act and protect their interests than those who are busy reaping the benefits.

The danger lies not so much in a failure to deliver on his promises, per se. After all, if Mr. Modi failed to live up to expectations, India would seek someone new at their next election. But political leaders do not suffer to go quietly to defeat, and if Mr. Modi's party finds their unpopularity rising on the back of failed expectations, they may revert to other political ideas that have served them well before. Even now there is a faction of the party that would see the mandate to deliver prosperity as a great opportunity to revisit older promises, such as a plan to build a grand temple on the ruins of a recently destroyed mosque (which probably stood on the ruins of a destroyed temple), though such an act would be a clear slap in the face of India's considerable Muslim minority and be perceived as a threat to the entire idea of the secular state. Yet, when political fortunes wane, lesser leaders are willing to loose the evils of Pandora's Box upon the world if it buys them a few moments more at the helm.

If Mr. Modi and his party face a disenchanted electorate, there will be a strong temptation to tear at the scabs of sectarian conflict. Mr. Modi has already presided over a violent reaction against Muslims before, and while he maintains that he did not encourage attacks on Muslims (and has been held blameless by inquiry commissions) his responses have also a certain unwholesome vagueness, an unwillingness to deplore the violence that occurred, and a tendency to downplay the scale of violence. Should he face an unfavorable political climate, will he revert to a less suave version of himself and seek to bolster his support amongst a smaller group at the expense of the nation? I hope not, and
People are not wholly unreasonable, and Indians are possessed of an almost legendary patience, bordering on apathetic. I believe that if Mr. Modi can deliver even a down payment on his promises, Indians will recognize his effort and extend him additional time. And hopefully, Mr. Modi will recognize that the only way to rule all of India is to present a vision for all of India. A better life and a better tomorrow means far more to more people than the grandest temple in Ayodyah. The challenge now is for Mr. Modi to manage expectations and work towards delivering on his implicit promise of that better tomorrow. And for his to remember what truly makes a better tomorrow.